EpidemiologyLinks:


epiDem models

epiDem models have been developed since 1995 with modelling applicable to both human and animal diseases. The models can accurately predict the future course of a disease, as well as indicating how long an epidemic will last, and how many individuals will become infected. The models will also allow administrators to differentiate between control strategies that will and will not be effective.

Modelling details

It remains important to focus upon biomodel parameters which can be gleaned from field data: the biomodel parameters are subsequently used for predictive purposes. The biomodel parameters remain accurate for predictions because they are gleaned directly from the field data, rather than from experimental conditions that are contrived. The key aspect of biomodels is that they are biologically accurate and encompass a large number of factors which would otherwise have to be guessed. Biomodels remain quantitative rather than qualitative, offering high numerical accuracy in their predictive capabilities.

Since biomodels remove many of the risks associated with first generation mathematical models, the associated recommendations for disease control are more reliable. This increase in reliability offers benefits to administrators in the formulation of contingeny plans for future disease epidemics.