A veterinary surgeon in general practice provided the following relevant observation:
"The fire brigade re-use the same fire engines repeatedly, and veterinary administrators re-use the same disease control measures repeatedly. When a disease model examines an epidemic and comes up with with a radical solution, then the alarm bells begin to ring. Those same alarm bells call for a re-examination of the biology, rather than introducing inaccurate solutions from over-complicated, untested mathematics."
Re-examination of the biology often provides a fascinating (and unseen) outcome, upon which some accurate, quite simple biomodels can be built; moreover, any contingency plans for disease control should be formed during the time periods between epidemics [18]. Many infectious diseases (both viral and bacterial) exhibit similar epidemiological characteristics (that will build accurate biomodels), and these will determine where, how and when a disease will spread.
Some diseases are of significant economic importance such as BSE and Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Other transboundary and emerging diseases hold significance for both animals and people alike, or hold the potential for creating worldwide pandemics, such as SARS, Avian Flu, Swine Flu, etc. All of these diseases exhibit subclinical and acute forms.
The disease ratio (DR) of subclinical to acute forms of a disease, is equally relevant for diseases with short incubation periods (and therefore rapid transmission rates) such as Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), as it is for a disease such as Tuberculosis (TB), with a longer incubation period and a slower transmission rate. The DR for FMD has been measured at 1:1, whilst the DR for TB has been measured at 3:1. All diseases with a measurable DR can benefit from the application of biomodels. Biomodels can be used to answer relevant questions ie. such as the possible success of a badger cull to reduce the prevelance of TB in the UK (currently at 600% higher than other EU countries, and growing by 20% in the past decade).
Biomodels can be applied to a large number of politically and economically important diseases, and offer a set of predictive capabilities that conventional disease tracking measures cannot provide (ie. via the tracing of infected premises). Biomodels can be applied to all diseases that exhibit subclinical disease. Most infectious diseases exhibit subclinical forms.
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